Mathematical Model Predicts Box Office From Social Media Activity
Japanese scientists have devised a mathematical formula that can predict the box office performance of a movie based on the level of related activity on social networks and other websites before and during its release. The study, led by Professor Akira Ishii from the Department of Applied Mathematics and Physics at Tottori University, also found that when advertising was placed was more important than overall promotional budgets.
Collecting revenue data on 25 Hollywood and local movies released in Japan, including Avatar, The Da Vinci Code, Crows Zero and Always: Sunset on Third Street 3, the group compared it with advertising spending and online activity on social networks and blogs. “We found a direct correlation between the number of social media postings about a movie on a given day, and the number of people who intended to purchase tickets,” Professor Ishii told The Hollywood Reporter.